Under the baseline scenario the problems causing poor water quality and transboundary pollution will continue unabated. The priority issues of sewage-borne pathogens, organic load from sewage and other sources, marine litter, increasing nutrient inputs, oil pollution, Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS), and mercury pollution will all intensify. The effects of pathogens and high organic loads are likely to be localized except in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna system where sewage and other organic contaminants are shared in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal due to high river discharge and ocean circulation patterns. Marine litter, including plastic and discarded fishing gear, will continue to be transported long distances in the marine environment and will continue to be a major transboundary issue. Increasing nutrient inputs from rivers will lead to inner-shelf hypoxic zones that will adversely affect transboundary fish stocks - a large (approx. 60,000 km2) hypoxic or ‘dead’ zone in the northwest part of the Bay has been detected. Increasing nutrients will result in Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), also known as red tides. The widespread discharge of untreated or inadequately treated domestic, industrial and agricultural wastewater and marine origin pollution will continue.

The proposed GEF project will lead to reductions in the amount of marine litter and pollution from fishing through the marking and recovery and recycling of gear and reduction of pollution from fishery landing areas. These changes will benefit coastal populations and other stakeholders such as tourism. The reduction in marine litter will benefit marine life. This component will also constitute a platform to support implementation of the FAO 2018 Voluntary Guidelines on Marking Fishing Gear and support countries in their participation in the newly commencing IMO-FAO-Norway GloLitter Project.

The proposed GEF project will further support increased understanding and awareness of the issues and strengthen monitoring and reporting at LME level and participation in the GPNM and GPML.